The Chinese electrolytic aluminum output slightly increasing in 2020
In 2020, the Chinese electrolytic aluminum output is 37.16 million tons, the inventory changes are expected to be basically the same, the net import of primary aluminum is expected to be 1.1 million tons, and the apparent consumption will reach 38.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Corresponding to the performance of domestic GDP in 2020, 5% of the apparent consumption of primary aluminum is really strong. The author believes that there is the growth of regular consumption and the help of occasional consumption.
In terms of conventional consumption, the aluminum formwork used in the construction of the main building sector, the largest domestic use of aluminum, and the aluminum doors and windows and curtain walls used at the completion end, are expected to provide an increment of 1 million tons of aluminum; secondly, the urban rail transit and photovoltaics of the new infrastructure The growth in demand for aluminum is expected to be 550,000 tons and 400,000 tons respectively. Of course, the export of primary aluminum products will drop significantly in 2020, but the export of finished organic electrical products will increase significantly to make up for the lack of export of some aluminum products.
In terms of incidental consumption, the epidemic has reduced the supply of scrap aluminum and the suppliers of scrap aluminum have been reluctant to sell, causing the price of refined scrap aluminum and the price of primary aluminum to become inverted. , the replacement of primary aluminum to scrap aluminum is about 500,000 to 550,000 tons. Masks are one of the most important anti-epidemic materials. With the spread of the new crown epidemic around the world, my country's mask production has increased rapidly. According to data from the survey company iiMedia Research, my country's mask production is expected to reach 102.5 billion in 2020, an increase of 20.5 times compared to 2019. The average aluminum consumption of the nose bridge strip of ordinary masks is about 0.3g/piece, and the average aluminum consumption of medium and high-end masks is 0.6g/piece. Based on a 6:4 pattern, the average aluminum consumption of masks is about 0.4g/piece. In 2020, the mask industry uses aluminum. The volume is expected to be 41,000 tons. In addition, the domestic flood control situation is severe in 2020, and the demand for aluminum flood control baffles will increase, which also constitutes an occasional demand for aluminum. It should also be noted that the V-shaped reversal of aluminum prices and the replenishment of warehouses in various links of the industrial chain is difficult to assess in quantity, but they do exist and contribute to consumption.
With the rise of electricity bills, more and more electrolytic aluminum plants in Europe and the United States have reduced production capacity or shut down factories, and the production of electrolytic aluminum in Europe and the United States has shown a downward trend. On the one hand, with the downturn in China's real estate market, China's electrolytic aluminum production will also show a downward trend in 2021 and 2022. On the other hand, as countries around the world strive to reduce carbon emissions, the production of electrolytic aluminum will show a downward trend in the long run, while the production of recycled aluminum will gradually increase.